Hi herb. Great piece just a side note -I have solar lots of panels and all ENPH micro-inverters- I have had a Tesla powerwall 3 on order for 3 years never a call or text asking when they can come install. I have 2 Teslas in driveway but no powerwall:) -LADWP -no idea why…..
Incredible work Herb & congrats on the fantastic numbers!! Do any of Teslarati know how they got an inverter on top of the battery and could eliminate the cost and potential thermal issues? Did they patent that technology? Thanks for any feedback or help!
Herb, perhaps I'm missing something. The big advantage that Enphase enjoys is the micro inverter at the panel so that long runs of solar energy don't arc into fires. Amazon famously turned off a bunch of warehouse panels because of fires caused by unstable energy, at least is what I ready earlier this year. Enphase installs in Florida where I now live are done with Tesla Powerwall batteries. The answer to states where home solar power are "net metered" at retail (Florida) and not wholesale rates changes much in the calculus of efficient returns from an installation under new regimes of utilities raising prices during peak power. Many homes associations still refuse installations of solar panels up north, citing in part the risk of fire. So maybe things are changing, but the Powerwall inverter seems to be more of a Solar Edge killer than an Enphase killer.
So Tesla has better storage batteries while solar panels are still inexpensive. Why not just add more panels and use the Enphase system? I am looking at wind turbines which are inexpensive and work better during bad weather. The renewable industry is innovating, so maybe battery technology is like that 40-gal side tank in your super pickup.
How does the ongoing, accelerating collapse of Tesla (car sales, profits, and the stock price) affect this.....
(as a trader, my impression is that many market participants are now starting to bet on a Trump win in the fall. They are already starting to sell off all things Biden .....solar, wind, AI, etc ......)
The big question is . . . how is the U.S. electric grid going to change in the next ten years? Where will the extra generation capacity come from to power AGI? Some data centers might be powered by new modular nuclear power plants like the ones Microsoft is hiring for. Musk thinks every house will have solar panels and the Tesla battery you mention so more power will be available to transmit to the AGI data centers directly from neighborhoods nearby. Will there also be vast solar panel arrays in the West? My guess is that it will probably be a mix of all three.
This is what OpenAI's Ilya Sutskever said about the power demands of AGI:
"The very first AGIs will be basically very very large data centers. Packed with specialized neural network processors working in parallel. Compact, hot, power-hungry package. Consuming like 10 million homes worth of energy."
"The way I imagine it is that there is an avalanche. Like there is an avalanche of AGI development. Imagine you have this huge, unstoppable force. And I think it's pretty likely the entire surface of the earth will be covered in solar panels and data centers."
Hi herb. Great piece just a side note -I have solar lots of panels and all ENPH micro-inverters- I have had a Tesla powerwall 3 on order for 3 years never a call or text asking when they can come install. I have 2 Teslas in driveway but no powerwall:) -LADWP -no idea why…..
Terrific piece
Incredible work Herb & congrats on the fantastic numbers!! Do any of Teslarati know how they got an inverter on top of the battery and could eliminate the cost and potential thermal issues? Did they patent that technology? Thanks for any feedback or help!
Herb, perhaps I'm missing something. The big advantage that Enphase enjoys is the micro inverter at the panel so that long runs of solar energy don't arc into fires. Amazon famously turned off a bunch of warehouse panels because of fires caused by unstable energy, at least is what I ready earlier this year. Enphase installs in Florida where I now live are done with Tesla Powerwall batteries. The answer to states where home solar power are "net metered" at retail (Florida) and not wholesale rates changes much in the calculus of efficient returns from an installation under new regimes of utilities raising prices during peak power. Many homes associations still refuse installations of solar panels up north, citing in part the risk of fire. So maybe things are changing, but the Powerwall inverter seems to be more of a Solar Edge killer than an Enphase killer.
So Tesla has better storage batteries while solar panels are still inexpensive. Why not just add more panels and use the Enphase system? I am looking at wind turbines which are inexpensive and work better during bad weather. The renewable industry is innovating, so maybe battery technology is like that 40-gal side tank in your super pickup.
question--
How does the ongoing, accelerating collapse of Tesla (car sales, profits, and the stock price) affect this.....
(as a trader, my impression is that many market participants are now starting to bet on a Trump win in the fall. They are already starting to sell off all things Biden .....solar, wind, AI, etc ......)
The big question is . . . how is the U.S. electric grid going to change in the next ten years? Where will the extra generation capacity come from to power AGI? Some data centers might be powered by new modular nuclear power plants like the ones Microsoft is hiring for. Musk thinks every house will have solar panels and the Tesla battery you mention so more power will be available to transmit to the AGI data centers directly from neighborhoods nearby. Will there also be vast solar panel arrays in the West? My guess is that it will probably be a mix of all three.
This is what OpenAI's Ilya Sutskever said about the power demands of AGI:
"The very first AGIs will be basically very very large data centers. Packed with specialized neural network processors working in parallel. Compact, hot, power-hungry package. Consuming like 10 million homes worth of energy."
"The way I imagine it is that there is an avalanche. Like there is an avalanche of AGI development. Imagine you have this huge, unstoppable force. And I think it's pretty likely the entire surface of the earth will be covered in solar panels and data centers."
Source: Ilya: the AI scientist shaping the world
https://youtu.be/9iqn1HhFJ6c?si=vqQadTclKJ7vzmpQ